Posted by: mrpeatie | August 16, 2008

What’s Up With Tropical Storm Fay?

The sixth named storm of the 2008 Hurricane season formed yesterday. Tropical Storm Fay is making its way over the Dominican Republic and heading towards Cuba. Luckily for us Fay decided to take the southern most route of its forecast track. Moving over the islands should limit it’s ability to strengthen and the current forecast track has it heading towards Florida. However, if Fay decides to take the eastern most track of its current forecast it could potentially curve east of the Florida panhandle and head in our direction.

Dr. Jeff Masters wraps up his most recent blog post with this possible scenario:

If Fay misses South Florida and veers either to the east or west of the Peninsula, the storm could easily reach Category 2 status before a potential landfall either on the Gulf Coast or in North Carolina/South Carolina.

And even if Fay goes West towards the Gulf of Mexico, we still aren’t out of the woods just yet. The 5-day forecast cone (see image below) is pretty damn wide meaning they really don’t have a clue. Even if Fay decides to venture into the Gulf, a turn over Florida and back out into the Atlantic is possible, much like Hurricane Charley in 2004.

I understand us nerdy weather folk often like to hype up these storms when the odds are it won’t have any impact on us. But no matter what Fay does, it’s in your best interests to keep on eye on the tropics. Early September is historically the busiest time for tropical development.

The eastern most track could bring Fay in our direction

The eastern most track could bring Fay in our direction

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