Posted by: mrpeatie | August 6, 2008

The Most Useless Forecast Revision You’ll Read Today

You too can predict the number of hurricanes this season!

You too can predict the number of hurricanes this season!

Prior to each hurricane season, Colorado State University climatologist William Gray shoots at a dartboard to predict the number of hurricanes that will form during the hurricane season that runs from June 1 through November 30.

This hurricane season has gotten off to a quick start, so as predicted, Dr. Gray has revised his original prediction:

April and June forecasts by Gray and his team at Colorado State said there would be 15 named storms in the Atlantic. Tuesday’s revision calls for 17, including the five already recorded.

Doesn’t changing your forecast in the middle of something defeat the purpose of a forecast? I have an idea. They should wait until the season is over before making these predictions. They might be more accurate this way, and the information would be just as helpful.

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